by The final leg of the Florida PGA tour closes at Innisbrook Resort for the Valspar Championship. Atypical of Florida courses, Innisbrook has elevation changes, bottlenecks and something resembling a dogleg on almost every hole. Played as a ‘less than driver’ course, there are five long par 3s and four par 5s that have a dogleg or even a double dogleg. With that, I’m targeting players who can play positional golf.
Here are three players who are solid Top 40 or Top 20 options who can compete for an outright win.
ben griffin
top 40 -135
top 20 +225
top 10 +375
top 5 +750
To win +5000
The North Carolina native doesn’t have the impressive resume of results you’d be looking for when betting on a player, with just nine top-10 finishes to his credit. However, Griffin is playing some good golf. In seven tournaments this year, he has six top-40 finishes, including a T12 at the Sony Open in Hawaii.
Griffin’s hitting has been inconsistent of late, missing shots off the tee in two of his last four events and missing more than four shots with his irons at the Arnold Palmer tournament. What intrigues me: Griffin is usually a solid forward, but this year he’s improved his short game.
After missing shots around the green previously, Griffin has won in five straight events while winning shots in his last three. What could be a benefit: Griffin is just a positive putter on the Bermuda greens. Although Innisbrook is overseeded with Poa Trivialis, the Bermudagrass may be coming out of its dormancy, similar to what we saw last week at the Players Championship.
ryan gerard
top 40 +110
top 20 +375
top 10 +600
top 5 +1200
To win +8000
This is a thank you post from North Carolina. The Raleigh native turned pro last year. Admittedly, this is a bit of a dart considering we only have stroke gained data from one event that played at the Honda Classic in February as a qualifier. It was a good tournament for him, finishing fourth in solo winning seven strokes with his irons and nearly 2.5 strokes with his putter. Although there is little data, Gerard followed up with a T11 in Puerto Rico, after earning a spot to play in his top 10 the week before. In a weaker field like this, I’m willing to take a wheel on someone who is potentially in a bit of heat, as his last tournament on the Korn Kerry Tour was a T3 in early February. Keep the streak going!
Victor Perez
top 40 -110
top 20 +280
top 10 +450
top 5 +900
To win +5500
The Frenchman has two titles this year on the Euro Tour, having won shots in the last three tournaments he has played and also won shots with the flat stick. Considered another dart, Perez has not played in the United States since the US Open in June. His last top 20 finish in the US was the June 2021 Players Championship. Perez is showing consistency regardless of where he plays, making him a tempting Top 40 option, or Top 20 if you’re interested. you feel risky
